96th Academy Awards Predictions

96th Academy Awards Predictions

The end of winter brings about the end of the awards season with the biggest and the best - the Academy Awards. Every year the Academy honors the best in cinema, and 2023 was a stellar year for it. There was everything - from stories of true outrages in American history to the founder of the Atomic Bomb to every little girl's lovable toy brought to life - there was no shortage of amazing stories being told on the big (and streaming) screen.

Here are my picks on who will win Oscar gold tonight...



ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

As usual these few categories are the ones I know the least about, and just go by the title (much like how I did once in college to pick the March Madness bracket and actually won despite not knowing a thing about basketball)

SHOULD WIN: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
WILL WIN: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko










LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Now this one I have sort of an idea of who should, and probably would, win. And that's Henry Sugar, a short film by the famed auteur director Wes Anderson.

SHOULD WIN: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
WILL WIN: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar









DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po

SHOULD WIN: The Last Repair Shop
WILL WIN: The Last Repair Shop









VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla: Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

This is a tight race between The Creator and Godzilla: Minus One. While it seems likely that The Creator will win, I can't in good conscience put it as my pick: it has to go to the film that made Godzilla look terrifying once again.

SHOULD WIN: Godzilla: Minus One
WILL WIN: Godzilla: Minus One









ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

No offense to perennial favorite John Williams, but nothing short of a shocker will keep Ludwig Goransson and Oppenheimer winning this.

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer









ORIGINAL SONG
It Never Went Away from American Symphony
I'm Just Ken from Barbie
What Was I Made For? from Barbie
The Fire Inside from Flamin' Hot
Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon

Ryan Gosling will just be Kenough to get to perform on the Oscar stage, as nothing will seemingly stop Billie Eilish from winning her second Oscar for her soulful rendition of What Was I Made For?

SHOULD WIN: What Was I Made For?
WILL WIN: What Was I Made For?









CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Simple. The masses who witnessed the wonder that is Oppenheimer will agree.

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer









COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Now this will come down to a two-film race - Barbie and Poor Things, both exemplify the costume design to perfection, but only one can win, and I think it'll go to the more Academy-friendly of the two.

SHOULD WIN: Poor Things
WILL WIN: Poor Things









FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

All of these films have exemplary editing techniques, and while two are epics (Killers and Oppenheimer), there seems to be a no-brainer answer for this category as well.

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer









SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

The Atomic Bomb test. That is all.

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer









PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

While Barbie world was plastic and fantastic, Poor Things' production design was something unseen in cinema before, a lavish and outlandish feast for the eyes.

SHOULD WIN: Poor Things
WILL WIN: Poor Things









MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

While Willem Dafoe underwent hours of transformative work in Poor Things, Bradley Cooper completely transformed into Leonard Bernstein, and could be the film's sole Oscar win.

SHOULD WIN: Poor Things
WILL WIN: Maestro









DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger

I haven't seen any of these films, but the Academy loves honoring political statement films (like last year's "Navalny")

SHOULD WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol
WILL WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol









ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

While it seems like a foregone conclusion Across the Spider-Verse will win (the first film won back in 2018, and this one is a visual wonder with over one thousand animators), never underestimate the power of Hayao Miyazaki, who's return to the big screen with The Boy and the Heron can't be overlooked.

SHOULD WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WILL WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse









INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

This will come to two true-life films, Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. The films couldn't be any more different (Society is an epic struggle for survival while Zone is a muted look into the seemingly mundane lives of real-life monsters), but every time the International Feature Film nominee was also nominated for Best Picture, it won International Feature Film as well.

SHOULD WIN: Society of the Snow
WILL WIN: The Zone of Interest









ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Interestingly Barbie was moved to Adapted Screenplay even though it's not technically based on a novel but rather a toy line (which so happens to have novels), and while Greta Gerwig was shut out of the Director nod, I fear she won't win here either. Rather it'll go to American Fiction, with its sharp witty dialogue, perfect blend of family drama and dark humor, and perfectly performed by the strong ensemble cast.

SHOULD WIN: American Fiction
WILL WIN: American Fiction









ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

The little courtroom drama that could - Anatomy of a Fall - shocked everyone by winning the Golden Globe for the same nomination, and it went on to win the BAFTA as well, so it looks like it'll complete the trifecta here.

SHOULD WIN: The Holdovers
WILL WIN: Anatomy of a Fall









BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

5. Jonathan Glazer. He did a compelling job in bringing to life the atrocities of Auschwitz as never seen before, but he's up against too strong a competition
4. Justine Triet. Anatomy of a Fall is pure genius, with a compelling story, tremendous performances and an intense murder mystery to boot, but again the talent is too strong
3. Martin Scorsese. It might be because we're used to it by now, but his Killers of the Flower Moon is exceptional - but also something typical of Scorsese
2. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things is Lanthimos's crowning achievement thus far, and if it wasn't for the number one, he would've won
1. Christopher Nolan. After being overlooked so many times by the Academy, this is Nolan's year by far

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan
WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan









BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)

5. Jodie Foster - it's nice she finally got nominated again after so many years, but this is a case of her just being happy being nominated
4. Danielle Brooks - her performance in The Color Purple is one of the film's highlights (and was also the role that Oprah Winfrey was nominated for in the original), but since this is the film's only nomination it doesn't bode well for her chances
3. America Ferrera - Her monologue in Barbie is one of the most impactful monologues in recent memory, but one strong moment doesn't make for an Oscar win
2. Emily Blunt - as Oppenheimer's longsuffering wife, Emily Blunt delivers a performance that's both strong and nuanced, crowned by the way she showed up the kangaroo court for her husband
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph - nothing can stop this juggernaut who's already won pretty much every award thus far, and most deservedly, this is a slam dunk

SHOULD WIN: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
WILL WIN: Da'Vine Joy Randolph









BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

5. Sterling K. Brown - his performance is deserving of the nomination, but nowhere near the best
4. Robert De Niro - much like Scorsese, this role was tailor made for De Niro's talents and ultimately gets lost in similar roles
3. Mark Ruffalo - his transformation to womanizing manchild in Poor Things is something that's totally out of left field for Ruffalo, and he made it work with equal parts flamboyance and sympathy
2. Ryan Gosling - He might be just Ken, but Gosling gives the plastic toy a life all his own
1. Robert Downey Jr. - Much like with Da'Vine, RDJ has been racking up wins left and right and is the clear frontrunner for the gold

SHOULD WIN: Robert Downey Jr.
WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr.









BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)

5. Annette Bening - much like her co-star Jodie Foster, this is the "I'm just happy to be nominated" spot
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro is Bradley Cooper's film, and she'd be more welcoming in the Supporting category in my opinion
3. Sandra Huller - Sandra has had a tremendous year in both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, and could be the dark horse of the competition
2. Emma Stone - This is a two-way race that's neck-and-neck, but after Gladstone won the SAG award (generally a strong predictor of Oscar gold), I'm putting Emma second: even though I think she deserves it more
1. Lily Gladstone - she'll earn the only Oscar for Killers of the Flower Moon, and while I think Emma is more deserving (Stone was pretty much on her own while Gladstone worked against the likes of DiCaprio and De Niro), Gladstone managed to outshine her two more acclaimed co-stars and made the film all her own

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone
WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone









BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

5. Colman Domingo - his role as the famous civil rights activist Rustin was strong, but compared to the other men here it's at the bottom
4. Jeffrey Wright - he does a tremendous job balancing sarcastic wit and family drama, but against the others in this category this is as far as he goes
3. Bradley Cooper - if this was another year he probably would've snagged the award, but he's a left field dark horse at this moment
2. Paul Giamatti - much like the Actress award, the Actor is neck-and-neck. Giamatti's performance in The Holdovers is clearly his best work to date, and he's my personal favorite, but after the SAG awards I had to put him as runner-up
1. Cillian Murphy - After snagging the SAG award, it looks like a foregone conclusion he's going to win the Oscar as well, and much deserved

SHOULD WIN: Paul Giamatti
WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy










BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

10. Maestro - it's a great biopic, but compared to the others it's not that great
9. Past Lives - Celine Song's tale of love lost is powerful and emotional
8. The Zone of Interest - showcasing murderous Nazi scum as ordinary people is a daring move and one that's subtly unnerving
7. American Fiction - it's a fun, satirical look at how Americans perceive race in America
6. Barbie - It was a miracle the movie turned out into the phenomena it did, but with no Actress or Director nods I doubt it'll take home the main award
5. The Holdovers - the tale is beautiful, the performances are spellbinding, the natural lighting gives it a more personal feel, and it's one of those feel-good movies about finding family in the most unlikely places
4. Killers of the Flower Moon - the story must be told, and Scorsese tells it with finesse, a delicate touch, and three capable performers who bring home the tale of the massacre of the Osage people
3. Anatomy of a Fall - this courtroom murder mystery is filled with intrigue, suspense, and mind-boggling twists and turns cemented by Sandra Huller's performance
2. Poor Things - Emma Stone carries this Lanthimos film to new heights, surrounded by impeccable performances, unique set designs, and a new look at the Frankenstein tale
1. Oppenheimer - J. Robert Oppenheimer's story is explosive (both literal and metaphorical), and the film itself is an epic that demands to be seen

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer



Animated Short: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Live Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Documentary Short Film: The Last Repair Shop
Visual Effects: Godzilla: Minus One
Original Score: Oppenheimer
Original Song: What Was I Made For?
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costume Design: Poor Things
Film Editing: Oppenheimer
Sound: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro
Documentary Feature Film: 20 Days in Mariupol
Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
International Feature Film: The Zone of Interest
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Director: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Actress: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Actor: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Picture: Oppenheimer


We'll see how many I get right tonight!