91st Academy Awards Predictions

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91st Academy Awards Predictions
Generally the theme of the Academy Awards tends to be "expect the unexpected" for many of the categories, and I typically don't fare too well in my own predictions when it comes to the "lesser known" categories.  We'll see if I can do better this year.



VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

There was a lot of standout visual effects films last year, and while I personally would love for "Avengers" to win, I feel the Academy will honor a film that's more dramatic, which is why I'm picking "First Man." 




COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

I'm a sucker for period pieces, and the costumes for "The Favourite" and "Mary Queen of Scots" were exceptional, but I'm going with the film that received the most nominations and say "The Favourite" will win.




MAKEUP AND HAIR
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

I don't understand why there's only three nominees for this category every year, but out of the three "Vice" clearly should win due to the incredible transformation of Christian Bale into Dick Cheney.




ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"I'll Fight" (RBG)
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"Shallow" (A Star is Born)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

If there's any sure thing this year, it's that Lady Gaga will take home an Oscar for her song "Shallow," and deserves it.




ORIGINAL SCORE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

I was surprised that "If Beale Street Could Talk" didn't get more nominations, but I think that the score for the film should win out here, as it was truly beautiful and moved the story forward.




SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

I went between three films - "Bohemian Rhapsody," "First Man," and "A Quiet Place," but went with "First Man" due to the great use of sound, especially during the space launch. 




SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

Generally whoever wins the Oscar for Sound Editing also wins for Sound Mixing, so I'm choosing "First Man" again and hope I'm right.




PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

There's a reason these films were selected, and that's because they all stand out visually so well, but I'm going with the period piece "The Favourite" to win. 




FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
The Favourite
Vice

Again I'm going with "The Favourite" here, as the film's edits were exceptional and really added to the insanity of the story. 




CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born

For me it came down to "The Favourite" and "Roma," but I went with "Roma" due to its excellent use of cinematography and how Cuaron really delivers his story using it.




BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Much like "Shallow" winning Original Song, "Roma" seems a lock to win Foreign Language Film.




BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

I have no idea. 




BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period.  End of Sentence. 

Guess.




BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

This category was a shocker to me, as I expected films like "Three Identical Strangers" and especially "Won't You Be My Neighbor" to be included, the latter being the one that would win, but since both aren't included, I went with "Free Solo," even though I wouldn't be surprised to see "RBG" win either.




ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Not only is "Bao" a Pixar short (and I actually expect them to loose the Animated Feature), but it was the first Pixar short directed by a woman - plus it's absolutely beautiful and poignant, so I fully expect it to win.




ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

While the general rule of thumb is to never go against Pixar, I feel that "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" will easily beat out "Incredibles 2," as the animation, the story, the acting, everything about it was superb.
 ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

It's going to be between "If Beale Street Could Talk" and "A Star is Born," and while I was leaning toward "Star," I'm going with "Beale Street" due to the subject matter. 




ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Alfonso Cuaron's moving personal story "Roma" will more than likely win out over "The Favourite," but I wouldn't be surprised if "The Favourite" won either.




DIRECTOR
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)

This is Cuaron's award to loose, and if anyone else wins it, I would be really surprised (although I'm surprised this is Spike Lee's first ever nomination for Director). 




SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

While I would've loved to see Nicole Kidman here for her powerful performance in "Boy Erased," it's easily been Regina King's category to loose ever since she won the Golden Globe and pretty much every other award since then.




SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Much like Regina King, Mahershala Ali has been racking up the awards this year, and it'll easily culminate to him earning his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar this year (although I was shocked to see Timothee Chalamet shut out for "Beautiful Boy").




LEAD ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

After I saw "A Star is Born," I figured Lady Gaga was a shoe-in for Best Actress - and then I saw "The Wife," and felt Glenn Close could sweep it out from under her.  After she won the Golden Globe - as well as pretty much every other award - I think that this long-time nominee (seven time nominee, who currently holds the record for most nominations with no win) will finally earn her elusive Oscar gold.




LEAD ACTOR
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

This one will be interesting, as it basically comes down to a two-man race: Christian Bale and Rami Malek, who both deliver solid performances and who have been sharing the wins this awards season, but in a 51-49 decision, I'm choosing Rami Malek to win an Oscar for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury.




BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Here's my order as to how this award should go, from the least deserving to the winner: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, A Star is Born, Roma.  I feel Netflix will rule the night with its first win, as Roma will be definitely deserving.


So there's my picks, we'll see if I'm right - I fully expect to be surprised.


Visual Effects: First Man
Costume Design: The Favourite
Makeup and Hair: Vice 
Original Song: "Shallow" (A Star is Born)
Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Editing: First Man 
Sound Mixing: First Man
Production Design: The Favourite
Film Editing: The Favourite
Cinematography: Roma 
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Live Action Short Film: Marguerite
Documentary Short Subject: Black Sheep
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Animated Short: Bao
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 
Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Screenplay: Roma
Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) 
Supporting Actress: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Actress: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Actor: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Picture: Roma

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