91st Academy Awards Predictions

91st Academy Awards Predictions

Generally the theme of the Academy Awards tends to be "expect the unexpected" for many of the categories, and I typically don't fare too well in my own predictions when it comes to the "lesser known" categories.  We'll see if I can do better this year.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

There was a lot of standout visual effects films last year, and while I personally would love for "Avengers" to win, I feel the Academy will honor a film that's more dramatic, which is why I'm picking "First Man." 

COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

I'm a sucker for period pieces, and the costumes for "The Favourite" and "Mary Queen of Scots" were exceptional, but I'm going with the film that received the most nominations and say "The Favourite" will win.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice

I don't understand why there's only three nominees for this category every year, but out of the three "Vice" clearly should win due to the incredible transformation of Christian Bale into Dick Cheney.

ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"I'll Fight" (RBG)

"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)

"Shallow" (A Star is Born)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

If there's any sure thing this year, it's that Lady Gaga will take home an Oscar for her song "Shallow," and deserves it.

ORIGINAL SCORE

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

I was surprised that "If Beale Street Could Talk" didn't get more nominations, but I think that the score for the film should win out here, as it was truly beautiful and moved the story forward.

SOUND EDITING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

I went between three films - "Bohemian Rhapsody," "First Man," and "A Quiet Place," but went with "First Man" due to the great use of sound, especially during the space launch. 

SOUND MIXING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

Generally whoever wins the Oscar for Sound Editing also wins for Sound Mixing, so I'm choosing "First Man" again and hope I'm right.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther

First Man
The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

There's a reason these films were selected, and that's because they all stand out visually so well, but I'm going with the period piece "The Favourite" to win. 

FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Green Book
The Favourite

Vice

Again I'm going with "The Favourite" here, as the film's edits were exceptional and really added to the insanity of the story. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star is Born

For me it came down to "The Favourite" and "Roma," but I went with "Roma" due to its excellent use of cinematography and how Cuaron really delivers his story using it.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Much like "Shallow" winning Original Song, "Roma" seems a lock to win Foreign Language Film.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Detainment

Fauve

Marguerite

Mother

Skin

I have no idea. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period.  End of Sentence. 

Guess.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

This category was a shocker to me, as I expected films like "Three Identical Strangers" and especially "Won't You Be My Neighbor" to be included, the latter being the one that would win, but since both aren't included, I went with "Free Solo," even though I wouldn't be surprised to see "RBG" win either.

ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour

Bao

Late Afternoon

One Small Step

Weekends

Not only is "Bao" a Pixar short (and I actually expect them to loose the Animated Feature), but it was the first Pixar short directed by a woman - plus it's absolutely beautiful and poignant, so I fully expect it to win.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

While the general rule of thumb is to never go against Pixar, I feel that "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" will easily beat out "Incredibles 2," as the animation, the story, the acting, everything about it was superb.

 ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star is Born

It's going to be between "If Beale Street Could Talk" and "A Star is Born," and while I was leaning toward "Star," I'm going with "Beale Street" due to the subject matter. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Alfonso Cuaron's moving personal story "Roma" will more than likely win out over "The Favourite," but I wouldn't be surprised if "The Favourite" won either.

DIRECTOR

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)

This is Cuaron's award to loose, and if anyone else wins it, I would be really surprised (although I'm surprised this is Spike Lee's first ever nomination for Director). 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams (Vice)

Marina de Tavira (Roma)

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

While I would've loved to see Nicole Kidman here for her powerful performance in "Boy Erased," it's easily been Regina King's category to loose ever since she won the Golden Globe and pretty much every other award since then.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Much like Regina King, Mahershala Ali has been racking up the awards this year, and it'll easily culminate to him earning his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar this year (although I was shocked to see Timothee Chalamet shut out for "Beautiful Boy").

LEAD ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

Glenn Close (The Wife)

Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

After I saw "A Star is Born," I figured Lady Gaga was a shoe-in for Best Actress - and then I saw "The Wife," and felt Glenn Close could sweep it out from under her.  After she won the Golden Globe - as well as pretty much every other award - I think that this long-time nominee (seven time nominee, who currently holds the record for most nominations with no win) will finally earn her elusive Oscar gold.

LEAD ACTOR

Christian Bale (Vice)

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

This one will be interesting, as it basically comes down to a two-man race: Christian Bale and Rami Malek, who both deliver solid performances and who have been sharing the wins this awards season, but in a 51-49 decision, I'm choosing Rami Malek to win an Oscar for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury.

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star is Born

Vice

Here's my order as to how this award should go, from the least deserving to the winner: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, A Star is Born, Roma.  I feel Netflix will rule the night with its first win, as Roma will be definitely deserving.

So there's my picks, we'll see if I'm right - I fully expect to be surprised.

Visual Effects: First Man

Costume Design: The Favourite

Makeup and Hair: Vice 

Original Song: "Shallow" (A Star is Born)

Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Sound Editing: First Man 

Sound Mixing: First Man

Production Design: The Favourite
Film Editing: The Favourite

Cinematography: Roma 

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Live Action Short Film: Marguerite

Documentary Short Subject: Black Sheep

Documentary Feature: Free Solo

Animated Short: Bao

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 

Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Screenplay: Roma

Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) 

Supporting Actress: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Actress: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Actor: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Picture: Roma