90th Academy Awards Predictions

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90th Academy Awards Predictions

Generally, I perform fairly well in predicting the winners for the bigger Oscar nominations, but eventually fail when it comes to the technical categories.  Once again, I'll see if I can redeem myself.


VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes


"Blade Runner 2049" had some of the most visually stunning scenes set to screen this last year, and I'd be shocked if anyone else wins this.



COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

For a film that centers on a famed dressmaker, I'd again be shocked if any other film wins over the beautiful costume designs of "Phantom Thread."



MAKEUP AND HAIR
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
For transforming Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, "Darkest Hour" will more than likely take the gold.



ORIGINAL SONG
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Songwriting duo Benj Pasek and Justin Paul won last year for "City of Stars" from La La Land, and I see them repeating their win for the rousing, emotional song "This is Me" from the amazing The Greatest Showman.



ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
 We get two titans of the musical world competing against each other in Hans Zimmer ("Dunkirk") and John Williams ("Star Wars"), and although I wouldn't rule out a win by Alexandre Desplat for "The Shape of Water," I think Zimmer's excellent score for "Dunkirk" will take the Oscar.



PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
This seems like a three-man race between "Blade Runner," "Dunkirk," and "Shape of Water," but I'm giving it to "Blade Runner 2049" for its sheer elegance and outstanding production designs.



SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
In a two-man race between "Blade Runner" and "Dunkirk," I'm giving it to "Dunkirk" for its outstanding use of sound to further intensify the conflict portrayed.



SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Same reasoning as above.




FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The way "Dunkirk" was edited to express three different events taking place in the same area at differing times was what made the film so powerful.



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)
With the Golden Globe winner "In the Fade" out of the running, and having no clue about any of these films, I'll just go on a whim and guess "The Insult."



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
 No clue.  Why not DeKalb Elementary?



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
"Heroin(e)?"  Sure, why not?



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Man in Aleppo
Strong Island
Never heard of them.  Guessing "Last Man in Aleppo."



CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
All these films deserve the win, but I feel like it'll be either "Blade Runner," "Dunkirk," or "Shape of Water," with "Dunkirk" edging them out.



ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I would've said "Shape of Water," but Guillermo del Toro has received some flack of late for seemingly stealing his idea from another source, so if voters are wary of giving him the win, I feel like it'll go for Martin McDonagh's "Three Billboards."



ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
 "Call Me By Your Name" was an exquisite masterpiece, from a stellar source material and one I feel will run away with this category.



ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolving Rhymes
 *Shrugs shoulders* "Garden Party?"



ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
They don't even have to announce the nominees.  Just get up there and give the award to "Coco."



DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillero del Toro (The Shape of Water)
This is the most exciting category I can think of, and one that could go in several directions.  I don't see the Academy giving it to Peele or Gerwig, but between Nolan, Anderson, and del Toro, it's totally up in the air.  Still, despite his latest controversy, I feel that Guillermo del Toro will win for "The Shape of Water."



SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
This will come down to the dueling mother roles of Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, and as much as I'd love to say Metcalf would win, it's been Janney who's been winning the other awards, and will take home the statue this year.



SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
This is an almost guarantee slam dunk for Rockwell, who's performance has garnered him several other prestigious awards and shows no sign of stopping.



LEAD ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
This is the most fiercely contested category of the Oscars this year, with any of the five nominees taking home the gold, and being totally deserving of it.  I rule Meryl out first because her role was the most insignificant compared to the others here, followed by Ronan's portrayal of a girl trying to get out of Sacramento.  Then Robbie's portrayal of Tonya Harding could be deemed too humorous by the stuffy Academy, so I see it coming down to Hawkins and McDormand, with McDormand edging out Hawkins to take the Oscar.



LEAD ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)
As much as I would love to see Chalamet win, it'll obviously be Gary Oldman's portrayal of the great World War II leader Winston Churchill that will take home the Oscar.



BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
 This is the first time I've seen all the nominated pictures before the Oscars, so I feel like I could predict this one a bit better.  Get Out has no shot, followed by Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread, which were both basically built around one performance.  The Post and Dunkirk would be eliminated next, followed by Lady Bird and my perennial favorite, Call Me By Your Name.  Ultimately, it'll be between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, and I can see the Academy giving it to the more beautifully shot The Shape of Water over the more low-key Three Billboards.



Here are my picks for Oscars this Sunday:

Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour
Original Song: This is Me
Original Score: Dunkirk
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary
Documentary Short Subject: Heroin€
Documentary Feature: Last Man in Aleppo
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Animated Short: Garden Party
Animated Feature: Coco
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Actress: Frances McDormand
Actor: Gary Oldman
Picture: The Shape of Water


We'll see if I'm right this Sunday!

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