90th Academy Awards Predictions

90th Academy Awards Predictions

Generally, I perform fairly well in predicting the winners for the bigger Oscar nominations, but eventually fail when it comes to the technical categories.  Once again, I'll see if I can redeem myself.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

"Blade Runner 2049" had some of the most visually stunning scenes set to screen this last year, and I'd be shocked if anyone else wins this.

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

For a film that centers on a famed dressmaker, I'd again be shocked if any other film wins over the beautiful costume designs of "Phantom Thread."

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

For transforming Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, "Darkest Hour" will more than likely take the gold.

ORIGINAL SONG

"Mighty River" from Mudbound

"Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name

"Remember Me" from Coco

"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall

"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman

Songwriting duo Benj Pasek and Justin Paul won last year for "City of Stars" from La La Land, and I see them repeating their win for the rousing, emotional song "This is Me" from the amazing The Greatest Showman.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 We get two titans of the musical world competing against each other in Hans Zimmer ("Dunkirk") and John Williams ("Star Wars"), and although I wouldn't rule out a win by Alexandre Desplat for "The Shape of Water," I think Zimmer's excellent score for "Dunkirk" will take the Oscar.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

This seems like a three-man race between "Blade Runner," "Dunkirk," and "Shape of Water," but I'm giving it to "Blade Runner 2049" for its sheer elegance and outstanding production designs.

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

In a two-man race between "Blade Runner" and "Dunkirk," I'm giving it to "Dunkirk" for its outstanding use of sound to further intensify the conflict portrayed.

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Same reasoning as above.

FILM EDITING
Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The way "Dunkirk" was edited to express three different events taking place in the same area at differing times was what made the film so powerful.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

The Insult (Lebanon)

Loveless (Russia)

On Body and Soul (Hungary)

The Square (Sweden)

With the Golden Globe winner "In the Fade" out of the running, and having no clue about any of these films, I'll just go on a whim and guess "The Insult."

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

DeKalb Elementary

The Eleven O'Clock

My Nephew Emmett

The Silent Child

Watu Wote/All of Us

 No clue.  Why not DeKalb Elementary?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Edith+Eddie

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Heroin(e)

Knife Skills

Traffic Stop

"Heroin(e)?"  Sure, why not?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Icarus

Last Man in Aleppo

Strong Island

Never heard of them.  Guessing "Last Man in Aleppo."

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

All these films deserve the win, but I feel like it'll be either "Blade Runner," "Dunkirk," or "Shape of Water," with "Dunkirk" edging them out.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I would've said "Shape of Water," but Guillermo del Toro has received some flack of late for seemingly stealing his idea from another source, so if voters are wary of giving him the win, I feel like it'll go for Martin McDonagh's "Three Billboards."

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

Molly's Game

Mudbound

 "Call Me By Your Name" was an exquisite masterpiece, from a stellar source material and one I feel will run away with this category.

ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball

Garden Party

Lou

Negative Space

Revolving Rhymes

 *Shrugs shoulders* "Garden Party?"

ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

They don't even have to announce the nominees.  Just get up there and give the award to "Coco."

DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Guillero del Toro (The Shape of Water)

This is the most exciting category I can think of, and one that could go in several directions.  I don't see the Academy giving it to Peele or Gerwig, but between Nolan, Anderson, and del Toro, it's totally up in the air.  Still, despite his latest controversy, I feel that Guillermo del Toro will win for "The Shape of Water."

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

This will come down to the dueling mother roles of Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, and as much as I'd love to say Metcalf would win, it's been Janney who's been winning the other awards, and will take home the statue this year.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

This is an almost guarantee slam dunk for Rockwell, who's performance has garnered him several other prestigious awards and shows no sign of stopping.

LEAD ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Meryl Streep (The Post)

This is the most fiercely contested category of the Oscars this year, with any of the five nominees taking home the gold, and being totally deserving of it.  I rule Meryl out first because her role was the most insignificant compared to the others here, followed by Ronan's portrayal of a girl trying to get out of Sacramento.  Then Robbie's portrayal of Tonya Harding could be deemed too humorous by the stuffy Academy, so I see it coming down to Hawkins and McDormand, with McDormand edging out Hawkins to take the Oscar.

LEAD ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)

As much as I would love to see Chalamet win, it'll obviously be Gary Oldman's portrayal of the great World War II leader Winston Churchill that will take home the Oscar.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 This is the first time I've seen all the nominated pictures before the Oscars, so I feel like I could predict this one a bit better.  Get Out has no shot, followed by Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread, which were both basically built around one performance.  The Post and Dunkirk would be eliminated next, followed by Lady Bird and my perennial favorite, Call Me By Your Name.  Ultimately, it'll be between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, and I can see the Academy giving it to the more beautifully shot The Shape of Water over the more low-key Three Billboards.

Here are my picks for Oscars this Sunday:

Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour
Original Song: This is Me
Original Score: Dunkirk
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary
Documentary Short Subject: Heroin€
Documentary Feature: Last Man in Aleppo
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Animated Short: Garden Party
Animated Feature: Coco
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Actress: Frances McDormand
Actor: Gary Oldman
Picture: The Shape of Water

We'll see if I'm right this Sunday!