92nd Academy Awards Predictions

92nd Academy Awards Predictions

Every year I make my Oscar predictions, and mostly every year I get most wrong (mostly the ones I don't know much about).  This year I was able to see all the pictures nominated for the biggest categories, so we'll see if I fare any better this year.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Factory

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

For Sama

Honeyland

I haven't seen any of these films (I'm surprised "Apollo 11" wasn't nominated), but from what I've read about them, "For Sama" sounds like the perfect Oscar bait winner, plus it received a lot of BAFTA nominations. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Again, I haven't seen these, but from the title alone (plus it deals with girls learning to read, write, and skate in Afghanistan), I'd go with "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone."







BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
Saria
A Sister

From what I've read about these films, "The Neighbors' Window" looks most likely to win.







ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable

Sister

"Hair Love" is the only film I've heard of here, and the premise of it looks tailor made for an Oscar win.

FILM EDITING
Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Parasite

All of these films were wonderfully edited, and while it's not easy to edit a three-and-a-half hour epic, the editing during the racing in "Ford v Ferrari" blew me away, and I feel it'll do the same for the Oscar judges.

SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferrari

Joker

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Sound editing centers on the differing sound recordings for a scene and how they're put together, and the louder the better.  While "Ford v Ferrari" does this well, "1917" does this expertly, throwing you into the conflict like you're there on the front lines.

SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound mixing refers to mixing the different sounds of a movie - dialogue, score, background noise, and everything in between - and usually whoever wins the Sound Editing wins Sound Mixing too, so I see "1917" winning again.

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

"The Irishman," "Jojo Rabbit," and "1917" really transport us back to the times of the films, while "Parasite" offers a beautiful look inside a modern fancy home, but none teleport the viewer as powerfully as Tarantino's "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," as he brings back the era of classic Hollywood to the big screen.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Joker

Little Women 

Marriage Story 

1917

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Nothing against the legendary John Williams, but this is easily Icelandic cellist Hildur Guonadottir's year.  She already won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice awards for her groundbreaking, unnerving music for "Joker," and she'll become the fourth woman ever to win this category this year.

ORIGINAL SONG
I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4)
I'm Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)

I'm Standing With You (Breakthrough)

Into the Unknown (Frozen II)
Stand Up (Harriet)

This is an interesting category because it seems like a foregone conclusion that "Into the Unknown" will win due to the fact that a) it's Disney, b) it's written by the same people who won for "Let It Go," and c) it's Disney...but after Elton John's "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" won the Golden Globe (as well as "Frozen II" not getting an Animated Film nomination), it seems like we might have a two-horse race: but I still think "Into the Unknown" will win (although if Cynthia Erivo wins for "Stand Up," she'll be the youngest EGOT winner ever, so I'm personally rooting for her). 

MAKEUP AND HAIR
Bombshell

Joker

Judy

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

1917

When you see "Bombshell," you actually think you see Megyn Kelly playing herself - not Charlize Theron.  Her transformation alone solidifies this win, let alone the other amazing makeup and hair styling talents shown throughout the film. 

COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

You can never count out a period piece for best Costume Design, so I feel "Little Women" will easily win - plus the costumes were beautiful.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman

1917

The Lion King

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I'm not sure if the Academy will honor a major blockbuster here (if not they might give it to "The Irishman" despite its effects being the lowpoint of the epic), but if they do, it should definitely go to "Avengers: Endgame." 

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
Joker

The Lighthouse

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

What made "1917" such a powerful, unforgettable film is how it was shot to make it look like one continuous take, and that's due to the sheer brilliance of Roger Deakins, who will easily win his second Oscar this year (he won previously for "Blade Runner 2049").

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Miserables

Pain and Glory

Parasite

 Obviously "Parasite" will run away with this category, since it's also nominated for Best Picture and Director, and won the SAG award for Best Ensemble - the first for a foreign film.  Plus it's absolute perfection.

ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

I Lost My Body

Klaus

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

This is a very interesting category since "Frozen II" wasn't nominated, but three Netflix films were.  Ultimately it'll come down to "Toy Story 4" and "Missing Link" (which surprised everyone - including its directors - after it won the Golden Globe), and while I loved the stop-motion animation of "Missing Link," I feel Disney will once again prevail, giving "Toy Story 4" the win.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

The Two Popes

After the backlash for Greta Gerwig's snub for Best Director, I feel that the Academy will honor her for her adapted screenplay of "Little Women" that gave the film a fresh, younger feel than its predecessors. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

While it might come down to "Hollywood" and "Parasite," it's easily Tarantino's year as his ode to classic Hollywood will undoubtedly take the gold here.

DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Todd Phillips (Joker)

Sam Mendes (1917)

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

This is a very weighted category, as each of these men deserve the win due to their outstanding work this year.  Scorsese delivered one of his best work in years.  Phillips gave new life to one of comic's most iconic villains.  Mendes throws us into the trenches of World War I.  Tarantino hurls us back to classic Hollywood.  Joon Ho provides a darkly humorous, unnerving take on modern society.  If I had to rank them, it'd be 5) Phillips, 4) Joon Ho, 3) Scorsese, 2) Tarantino, and 1) Mendes.  I feel Sam Mendes will win due to the work he put into the film, and the finished product.

SHOULD Win: Quentin Tarantino
WILL Win: Sam Mendes

REPLACE: Todd Phillips with Greta Gerwig (Little Women)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Another weighted category where I could see any of these actresses winning and be deserving of it, but Laura Dern has absolutely killed it with her performance, as well as sweeping every major award so far, and I don't see her streak ending here.

SHOULD Win: Florence Pugh

WILL Win: Laura Dern

REPLACE: Kathy Bates with Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

It's almost not fair to include Brad Pitt in this category, since he could easily have shared the Best Actor category with DiCaprio.  I'm calling his eventual win the "Viola Davis" effect, after she won Best Supporting Actress for "Fences" even though she clearly deserved a Best Actress nomination.

SHOULD Win: Brad Pitt

WILL Win: Brad Pitt

REPLACE: Anthony Hopkins with Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

LEAD ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)

The Lead Actor and Actress categories are the only real sure bets at this year's Oscars (then again, last year I said either Lady Gaga or Glenn Close would win, and Olivia Coleman did), but if anyone other than Renee Zellweger - who absolutely transformed herself into Judy Garland - wins, I'd be shocked.

SHOULD Win: Renee Zellweger
WILL Win: Renee Zellweger

REPLACE: Charlize Theron with Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

LEAD ACTOR
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Just give Joaquin the darn award already.

SHOULD Win: Joaquin Phoenix

WILL Win: Joaquin Phoenix

REPLACE: Antonio Banderas with Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Out of the nine nominated films, I can see four of them potentially winning, and will rank them all here:

#9 Ford v Ferrari - a great film, but easily a filler nomination

#8 Jojo Rabbit - too divisive and typically the Academy doesn't award a (mostly) comedy

#7 - Joker - Apart from Joaquin Phoenix's performance, there's nothing else that really "wows" the film

#6 Little Women - a unique take, but still a film that's been done several times in history

#5 Marriage Story - Carried by the strength of Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, it's easily a powerful film, but not worth the Best Picture title

Now the ones that I feel have a legitimate shot:

#4 The Irishman - Scorsese gives a stirring, thought-provoking, and downright stunning epic, but the Academy might still not be prepared to give Netflix a Best Picture win

#3 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - while it's not Tarantino's best, it's still a fantastic piece of cinema that needs to be rewarded, but since he's never won the category, I don't see him winning for this one

#2 Parasite - if it were up to me, I'd give the statue to "Parasite" due to its unparalleled storytelling and visceral story, but a foreign film has never won this category (although it did win the SAG equivalent)

#1 1917 - while the film was stirring and powerful, the real hold the movie has is the fact that it looks like it was shot in one continuous take, propelling the audience to the front lines, but without that gimmick it would've just been another war movie - but it'll be enough for the Academy to honor it

SHOULD Win: Parasite

WILL Win: 1917
REPLACE: Ford v Ferrari with The Lighthouse

So there's my predictions, let's see how many I get wrong this year!

Best Documentary Feature: For Sama
Best Documentary Short Subject: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Best Live Action Short Film: The Neighbors' Window
Animated Short: Hair Love
Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Sound Editing: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Original Song: Into the Unknown (Frozen II)
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Costume Design: Little Women
Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame
Cinematography: 1917
Best International Feature Film: Parasite
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Director: Sam Mendes (1917)
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Best Picture: 1917