95th Academy Awards Predictions
95th Academy Awards Predictions
2022 was an amazing year for films, the best post-pandemic and one of the best in recent memory thanks to huge blockbusters ("Top Gun: Maverick"), smaller independent thought-provoking dramas ("The Banshees of Inisherin"), remarkable animated films ("Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio") and, of course, "Everything Everywhere All at Once." While I typically fare well in picking my Oscar predictions, this year is a difficult one as there's hardly any obvious front-runner for the major categories, and that's all thanks to the impeccable films and actors, directors, writers, and everyone behind the scenes who were nominated. Still, here's my picks for who will win Oscar gold tonight.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
I have not seen any of these short films, so I'm going to pick "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse" because it also won the BAFTA.
Should Win: My Year of Dicks (just for the title alone)
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitacase
Again I haven't seen any of these short films, and while "An Irish Goodbye" earned the BAFTA, there is no denying the directorial work of Oscar-winner Alfonso Cuaron and his work "Le Pupille."
Should Win: An Irish Goodbye
Will Win: Le Pupille
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Documentary films often tell tales of extraordinary people that we would've never heard of because what they do is often overshadowed by bigger things. That being said it'll come down to two: "Stranger at the Gate" (about Afghan refugees who come across an American Marine who plans to bomb their community center) or "The Elephant Whisperers" about a couple in Southern India who tends to elephants. I think they'll go with the less controversial choice here.
Should Win: Stranger at the Gate
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
This award comes down to two Academy faves: the iconic John Williams (for his indelible work in Spielberg's "The Fabelmans") and recent Oscar winner Justin Hurwitz (for his work in frequent collaborator Damien Chazelle's divisive "Babylon"). While Williams is the perennial favorite, there's no denying hat Hurwitz's score in "Babylon" is the film's saving grace, transporting audiences back to the roaring twenties where cinema underwent its biggest transformation, and he'll nab himself another Oscar.
Should Win: Babylon
Will Win: Babylon
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
While "Top Gun: Maverick" has been nominated for a few Oscars, this will be the only time the film will earn recognition. There's no denying that one of the many strengths from the film is the sound design that fully envelops you and makes you feel like you're sitting in the cockpit with the flyers.
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Again this award comes down to two deserving previous winners. Ruth Carter's work in the first "Black Panther"made her the first African American woman to win the Costume Design Oscar, but while "Black Panther" was a national sensation, the sequel was a bit less well-received (it didn't even earn a Best Picture nod), so the Oscar could go to Catherine Martin, who's costume designs for "Elvis" propelled Austin Butler into the role, and she's won two previous Oscars for her collaborations with "Elvis" director Baz Luhrmann for "Moulin Rouge!" and "The Great Gatsby." Still, my personal favorite is the under-appreciated "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" which is all about fashion, but oh well.
Should Win: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Will Win: Elvis
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Again this award will come down to two deserving films. Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Also Signoretti transformed Austin Butler into Elvis throughout the decades, as well as made Tom Hanks into the unlikable Colonel Tom Parker (also the Academy has given this award to films about real-life people the last five years), while Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley's stellar prosthetic work turned Brendan Fraser into a 600-pound man in "The Whale." Both are amazing transformations, but ultimately there can only be one winner, and by a 51/49 decision I'm going with my personal favorite, "The Whale."
Should Win: Elvis
Will Win: The Whale
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
The visually wonderful "Babylon" will easily earn this award, as both production designer Florencia Martin and set decorator Anthony Carlino transported audiences to the golden age of cinema, where "talkies" overtook the silent film era, showcasing both the depravity and the grandiose nature of cinema spanning decades. Their work is is a work of art and will easily receive the recognition it deserves.
Should Win: Babylon
Will Win: Babylon
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
One of the most obvious winners in tonight's ceremony will be "Avatar: The Way of Water" for Best Visual Effects, as the film solely relies on James Cameron's vision executed perfectly by Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett.
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
While it might seem that "Top Gun: Maverick"'s amazing editing that makes you feel like you're in the cockpit would be a surefire Oscar win, there's no denying that Paul Rogers did something completely unheard of in "Everything Everywhere All at Once:" edit his way around multiple universes, timelines, and realities without it becoming too jumbled, confusing, or overwhelming. Plus the film has racked up several other editing awards this year, so the Oscar should be no different.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
The work in "Tar" is impeccable, as cinematographer Florian Hoffmeister handled the camera like a pro, leaving us uncomfortable for far too long and transforming small apartments and large orchestra halls into things of beauty - but still that could come across as less spectacular over James Friend's work in "All Quiet on the Western Front," where you feel like you're in the trenches with the hapless soldiers.
Should Win: Tar
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Applause (Tell It Like a Woman)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
There's some heavy hitters in this category, from Diane Warren who's earned fourteen nominations without a single win (this time nominated for the unheard of film "Tell It Like a Woman") to former winner Lady Gaga for her work in "Top Gun: Maverick" and Rihanna's heartfelt rendition of "Lift Me Up," but only one song nominated is more than just used for the ending credits, and one song that enveloped the entire meaning of the film, and that's "Naatu Naatu" from "RRR."
Should Win: Lift Me Up
Will Win: Naatu Naatu
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
One of the most difficult categories to call is Best Documentary Film, because there's not one film that stands out in the bunch, and not because they're all mediocre - the opposite, actually. "All That Breathes" tells the story of two brothers in India who run a bird hospital; "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" is a crusade about getting institutions to cut ties with the Sackler family, who profited off the opioid crisis; "Fire of Love" tells the heartwarming story of married volcanologists who explored the world together; "A House Made of Splinters" is about children left abandoned during the war in Ukraine; "Navalny" is about Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and his subsequent poisoning. All the films here are capable of winning, all are deserving, and it's a complete toss-up on who'll win.
Should Win: A House Made of Splinters
Will Win: Navalny
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
The last two International Feature Films to also be nominated for Best Picture went on to win the International Feature Film category ("Drive My Car" and "Parasite"), so the most obvious win is the nine-time nominee "All Quiet on the Western Front."
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
My love for the beloved mollusk Marcel notwithstanding, there's only one logical choice for this award, and that's the arduous, painstaking work Guillermo del Toro and company put into his stop-motion masterpiece "Pinocchio."
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
There's no denying that "Women Talking" was shut out of several major categories (such as Sarah Polley for Best Director or Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley for Best Supporting Actress), and although it has a Best Picture nod, it's far from likely it'll win - which leaves Adapted Screenplay, which Polley wrote from the Miriam Toews novel by the same name. In a film that's focused almost entirely on dialogue, there's no doubt that she'll be rewarded the Oscar for this category.
Should Win: Women Talking
Will Win: Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
2022 was the year for roasting the culturally and sophisticated elite, which is why "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" found their way here (although both are incredible scripts). Spielberg's pseudo-biographical work "The Fabelmans" should've gotten more attention than it did, which leaves a tight contest between Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin" which is about two lifelong friends who suddenly stop being friends (and an obvious allegory to the Irish Civil War) and the Daniels' mind-bending tale "Everything Everywhere All at Once." While this is McDonagh's (who also won the National Board of Review, Golden Globes, and the BAFTA) most solid script to date, there's no denying the mental fortitude the Daniels (who just clinched the WGA) exuded in EEAAO, and they absolutely deserve the award.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. Kerry Condon's work in "Banshees" is nothing short of great, but in an otherwise stacked category her chance of winning is rather low.
4. Even though she just won the SAG (which is often a good precursor to Oscar gold), Jamie Lee Curtis's role in "EEAAO" seems too small compared to her co-star Hsu, and their nominations could split the votes.
3. Speaking of Stephanie Hsu, her multiple roles in "EEAAO" is a thing of cinematic beauty, and being able to balance nihilistic thoughts with a desire to be accepted by her family cannot be denied.
2. Underrated Hong Chau gave a tear-inducing performance in "The Whale" as the long-suffering caretaker to Brendan Fraser's Charlie, but more than that, the story that she tells in it will absolutely rip your heart out, and it's all due to the powerhouse that is Chau.
1. Racking up statuettes like they're Pokemon, there seemingly is nothing stopping Angela Bassett from finally receiving Oscar gold for her work in "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever." Her only hurdle comes from the fact that the Academy might not want to reward Marvel with a major award, but if she wins she'll be the first in the 31-film MCU franchise to earn an Oscar for acting.
Should Win: Angela Bassett
Will Win: Angela Bassett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. It's a surprise Judd Hirsch got the nomination over Paul Dano, especially since his role in "The Fabelmans" is less than ten minutes long - but it's still a strong performance, just too short for supporting.
4. Barry Keoghan is known for taking on unique, quirky roles ("The Killing of a Sacred Deer," "The Green Knight"), and his role in "The Banshees of Inisherin" is as quirky as they come, but his performance is overshadowed by Brendan Gleeson who'd probably get more votes than him.
3. Brian Tyree Henry's performance in "Causeway" is a thing of subtle beauty, about a man struggling with his inner demons after causing a car accident that killed his young nephew. He brings a broken performance that'll move you to tears.
2. Brendan Gleeson's long overdue for an Oscar, and in any other year this would be his year for his heavenly performance in "The Banshees of Inisherin" who struggles with leaving a lasting mark in the world through abandoning his "simple" friend.
1. There's absolutely no stopping Ke Huy Quan from winning this award - in this universe or any multiverse.
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tar)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. Michelle Williams' performance as the troubled matriarch in "The Fabelmans" would've fared better in the Best Supporting Actress category, but here her role is totally overshadowed by everyone else.
4. There was a lot of hoopla about Ana de Armas's nomination as Marilyn Monroe in the much-maligned "Blonde" (after all, it earned several Razzie nominations), but she does play Monroe with a melancholy way that serves as her best performance to date.
3. Speaking of hoopla, everyone was shocked that Andrea Riseborough got the nomination for the unseen "To Leslie" over the likes of Viola Davis ("The Woman King") or Danielle Deadwyler ("Till"), and her role as a struggling alcoholic trying to turn her life around is stereotypical, but Riseborough does give an awards-worthy performance nonetheless.
2. The whole awards circuit has been a yo-yo game between these two actresses, and one of them will undoubtedly win Oscar gold - but which one? For me the second best performance in this category (and I know it'll be a shocker) is Michelle Yeoh's work in "EEAAO." As laundromat owner Evelyn Wang, Yeoh must not only perform that role, but multiple roles as well. She absolutely nails each one, and while I put her as second here I have no doubt she'll win (well, a little doubt), and she is much more than deserving.
1. For me, Cate Blanchett's performance as Lydia Tar in "Tar" is as impeccable as they come. Her role - as opposed to Yeoh's - is vastly different. While Yeoh plays a caring, nurturing mother who wants her daughter back in her life, Blanchett's Lydia Tar doesn't want anyone, because she's an accomplished orchestra conductor who uses her influence to get whatever - and whoever - she wants, and eventually suffers from her own hubris.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
BEST LEAD ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Afersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
5. It's a travesty that Bill Nighy has never been nominated before, and while his work in "Living" is Oscar-worthy, his role is totally eclipsed by the other performances.
4. Paul Mescal is an up-and-coming actor who gives a rousing performance in Charlotte Wells' "Aftersun" and I was more than happy to see him get a nomination for it, but sadly he won't come anywhere near Oscar gold.
3. The dark horse in this race is Colin Farrell (who, like Nighy, I'm shocked has never been nominated) for his role in "The Banshees of Inisherin." His role as a dim-witted yet lovable man who finds himself saddened when his best friend suddenly drops him is both painful and humorous, and Farrell is a pure delight, so he could be the upset in this category.
2. Much like Lead Actress, Lead Actor comes to two deserving performances. While I know mathematically it's better to bet on Butler, I have to go with my number one choice. Austin Butler did exude Elvis so much that he was stuck talking like Elvis long after production ended, and he has racked up some impressive wins, and the Academy does love rewarding actors who play real-life people, and the Academy has hardly awarded the Lead Actor statuette for an actor in a film not nominated for Best Picture...I know I should change my pick but my heart says no.
1. Brendan Fraser's comeback story is the stuff movies are made of, but only better because it's reality. His transformative performance in "The Whale" needs Oscar recognition, and since he won the SAG (which is a strong precursor to the Oscar), he could very well walk away with it. Only history is going against him, as another actor in an Aronofsky film (Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler") was denied Oscar gold mostly due to the film not getting a Best Picture nod, as well as Kristen Stewart getting robbed of an Oscar last year for "Spencer" for pretty much the same reason.
Should Win: Brendan Fraser
Will Win: Austin Butler
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (Tar)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
5. Todd Field's "Tar" is heightened by Cate Blanchett's performance, but other than that there's not much going for it other than the spectacular cinematography.
4. Ruben Ostlund's skewering the cultural elite in "Triangle of Sadness" is both darkly humorous and deep, but dampened by an elongated final act.
3. Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin" is a not-so-subtle look at the Irish Civil War told through two lifelong friends who suddenly stop being friends, and while it's one of his best works to date, there's a few directors who did better.
2. While it seems like cinematic blasphemy to say Steven Spielberg won't get an Oscar for a film that's essentially his life story, "The Fabelmans" was hampered by lackluster attendance and reviews, slightly diminishing his chances.
1. There seems to be no stopping the duo The Daniels for their directorial work in "EEAAO," as the film is not just the most ambitious film in the lot, but also they were able to pull it off with effortless ease.
Should Win: The Daniels
Will Win: The Daniels
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
#10 - Top Gun: Maverick. The Academy hardly ever awards a popcorn summer blockbuster with the gold.
#9 - Avatar: The Way of Water. Though visually beautiful, there's nothing much more about the film than that.
#8 - Triangle of Sadness. Though it has a few highs, there's more than a few lows as well that makes it an uneven chance to win.
#7 - Women Talking. The lack of other nominations doesn't bode well for this amazing tale of women in a Mennonite community coming together after a shared nightmare.
#6 - Tar. The Academy doesn't usually award a film based on just a strong lead performance.
#5 - Elvis. Same as above.
#4 - All Quiet on the Western Front. Though the original did win the Oscar back in 1930, it's a long shot that this German film will do the same, mostly because it's a film that we've seen before.
#3 - The Banshees of Inisherin. The entire cast receiving nominations, as well as directing and writing, bodes well for this Irish tale about friendships lost.
#2 - The Fabelmans. Never totally count out a Speilberg film, especially one about his own life.
#1 - Everything Everywhere All at Once. There seems to be no stopping this juggernaut, who recently clinched the SAG award for the same category, and it's more than deserving of the final prize of the award season.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Live Action Short: Le Pupille
Documentary Short Film: The Elephant Whisperers
Original Score: Babylon
Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design: Elvis
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale
Production Design: Babylon
Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Song: Naatu Nattu (RRR)
Documentary Film: Navalny
International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Film: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Actor: Austin Butler
Director: The Daniels
Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once
We'll see how many I get right when the 95th Academy Awards airs tonight on ABC at 8 pm ET!
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
I have not seen any of these short films, so I'm going to pick "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse" because it also won the BAFTA.
Should Win: My Year of Dicks (just for the title alone)
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitacase
Again I haven't seen any of these short films, and while "An Irish Goodbye" earned the BAFTA, there is no denying the directorial work of Oscar-winner Alfonso Cuaron and his work "Le Pupille."
Should Win: An Irish Goodbye
Will Win: Le Pupille
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Documentary films often tell tales of extraordinary people that we would've never heard of because what they do is often overshadowed by bigger things. That being said it'll come down to two: "Stranger at the Gate" (about Afghan refugees who come across an American Marine who plans to bomb their community center) or "The Elephant Whisperers" about a couple in Southern India who tends to elephants. I think they'll go with the less controversial choice here.
Should Win: Stranger at the Gate
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
This award comes down to two Academy faves: the iconic John Williams (for his indelible work in Spielberg's "The Fabelmans") and recent Oscar winner Justin Hurwitz (for his work in frequent collaborator Damien Chazelle's divisive "Babylon"). While Williams is the perennial favorite, there's no denying hat Hurwitz's score in "Babylon" is the film's saving grace, transporting audiences back to the roaring twenties where cinema underwent its biggest transformation, and he'll nab himself another Oscar.
Should Win: Babylon
Will Win: Babylon
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
While "Top Gun: Maverick" has been nominated for a few Oscars, this will be the only time the film will earn recognition. There's no denying that one of the many strengths from the film is the sound design that fully envelops you and makes you feel like you're sitting in the cockpit with the flyers.
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Again this award comes down to two deserving previous winners. Ruth Carter's work in the first "Black Panther"made her the first African American woman to win the Costume Design Oscar, but while "Black Panther" was a national sensation, the sequel was a bit less well-received (it didn't even earn a Best Picture nod), so the Oscar could go to Catherine Martin, who's costume designs for "Elvis" propelled Austin Butler into the role, and she's won two previous Oscars for her collaborations with "Elvis" director Baz Luhrmann for "Moulin Rouge!" and "The Great Gatsby." Still, my personal favorite is the under-appreciated "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" which is all about fashion, but oh well.
Should Win: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Will Win: Elvis
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Again this award will come down to two deserving films. Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Also Signoretti transformed Austin Butler into Elvis throughout the decades, as well as made Tom Hanks into the unlikable Colonel Tom Parker (also the Academy has given this award to films about real-life people the last five years), while Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley's stellar prosthetic work turned Brendan Fraser into a 600-pound man in "The Whale." Both are amazing transformations, but ultimately there can only be one winner, and by a 51/49 decision I'm going with my personal favorite, "The Whale."
Should Win: Elvis
Will Win: The Whale
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
The visually wonderful "Babylon" will easily earn this award, as both production designer Florencia Martin and set decorator Anthony Carlino transported audiences to the golden age of cinema, where "talkies" overtook the silent film era, showcasing both the depravity and the grandiose nature of cinema spanning decades. Their work is is a work of art and will easily receive the recognition it deserves.
Should Win: Babylon
Will Win: Babylon
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
One of the most obvious winners in tonight's ceremony will be "Avatar: The Way of Water" for Best Visual Effects, as the film solely relies on James Cameron's vision executed perfectly by Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett.
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
While it might seem that "Top Gun: Maverick"'s amazing editing that makes you feel like you're in the cockpit would be a surefire Oscar win, there's no denying that Paul Rogers did something completely unheard of in "Everything Everywhere All at Once:" edit his way around multiple universes, timelines, and realities without it becoming too jumbled, confusing, or overwhelming. Plus the film has racked up several other editing awards this year, so the Oscar should be no different.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
The work in "Tar" is impeccable, as cinematographer Florian Hoffmeister handled the camera like a pro, leaving us uncomfortable for far too long and transforming small apartments and large orchestra halls into things of beauty - but still that could come across as less spectacular over James Friend's work in "All Quiet on the Western Front," where you feel like you're in the trenches with the hapless soldiers.
Should Win: Tar
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Applause (Tell It Like a Woman)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
There's some heavy hitters in this category, from Diane Warren who's earned fourteen nominations without a single win (this time nominated for the unheard of film "Tell It Like a Woman") to former winner Lady Gaga for her work in "Top Gun: Maverick" and Rihanna's heartfelt rendition of "Lift Me Up," but only one song nominated is more than just used for the ending credits, and one song that enveloped the entire meaning of the film, and that's "Naatu Naatu" from "RRR."
Should Win: Lift Me Up
Will Win: Naatu Naatu
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
One of the most difficult categories to call is Best Documentary Film, because there's not one film that stands out in the bunch, and not because they're all mediocre - the opposite, actually. "All That Breathes" tells the story of two brothers in India who run a bird hospital; "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" is a crusade about getting institutions to cut ties with the Sackler family, who profited off the opioid crisis; "Fire of Love" tells the heartwarming story of married volcanologists who explored the world together; "A House Made of Splinters" is about children left abandoned during the war in Ukraine; "Navalny" is about Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and his subsequent poisoning. All the films here are capable of winning, all are deserving, and it's a complete toss-up on who'll win.
Should Win: A House Made of Splinters
Will Win: Navalny
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
The last two International Feature Films to also be nominated for Best Picture went on to win the International Feature Film category ("Drive My Car" and "Parasite"), so the most obvious win is the nine-time nominee "All Quiet on the Western Front."
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
My love for the beloved mollusk Marcel notwithstanding, there's only one logical choice for this award, and that's the arduous, painstaking work Guillermo del Toro and company put into his stop-motion masterpiece "Pinocchio."
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
There's no denying that "Women Talking" was shut out of several major categories (such as Sarah Polley for Best Director or Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley for Best Supporting Actress), and although it has a Best Picture nod, it's far from likely it'll win - which leaves Adapted Screenplay, which Polley wrote from the Miriam Toews novel by the same name. In a film that's focused almost entirely on dialogue, there's no doubt that she'll be rewarded the Oscar for this category.
Should Win: Women Talking
Will Win: Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
2022 was the year for roasting the culturally and sophisticated elite, which is why "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" found their way here (although both are incredible scripts). Spielberg's pseudo-biographical work "The Fabelmans" should've gotten more attention than it did, which leaves a tight contest between Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin" which is about two lifelong friends who suddenly stop being friends (and an obvious allegory to the Irish Civil War) and the Daniels' mind-bending tale "Everything Everywhere All at Once." While this is McDonagh's (who also won the National Board of Review, Golden Globes, and the BAFTA) most solid script to date, there's no denying the mental fortitude the Daniels (who just clinched the WGA) exuded in EEAAO, and they absolutely deserve the award.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. Kerry Condon's work in "Banshees" is nothing short of great, but in an otherwise stacked category her chance of winning is rather low.
4. Even though she just won the SAG (which is often a good precursor to Oscar gold), Jamie Lee Curtis's role in "EEAAO" seems too small compared to her co-star Hsu, and their nominations could split the votes.
3. Speaking of Stephanie Hsu, her multiple roles in "EEAAO" is a thing of cinematic beauty, and being able to balance nihilistic thoughts with a desire to be accepted by her family cannot be denied.
2. Underrated Hong Chau gave a tear-inducing performance in "The Whale" as the long-suffering caretaker to Brendan Fraser's Charlie, but more than that, the story that she tells in it will absolutely rip your heart out, and it's all due to the powerhouse that is Chau.
1. Racking up statuettes like they're Pokemon, there seemingly is nothing stopping Angela Bassett from finally receiving Oscar gold for her work in "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever." Her only hurdle comes from the fact that the Academy might not want to reward Marvel with a major award, but if she wins she'll be the first in the 31-film MCU franchise to earn an Oscar for acting.
Should Win: Angela Bassett
Will Win: Angela Bassett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. It's a surprise Judd Hirsch got the nomination over Paul Dano, especially since his role in "The Fabelmans" is less than ten minutes long - but it's still a strong performance, just too short for supporting.
4. Barry Keoghan is known for taking on unique, quirky roles ("The Killing of a Sacred Deer," "The Green Knight"), and his role in "The Banshees of Inisherin" is as quirky as they come, but his performance is overshadowed by Brendan Gleeson who'd probably get more votes than him.
3. Brian Tyree Henry's performance in "Causeway" is a thing of subtle beauty, about a man struggling with his inner demons after causing a car accident that killed his young nephew. He brings a broken performance that'll move you to tears.
2. Brendan Gleeson's long overdue for an Oscar, and in any other year this would be his year for his heavenly performance in "The Banshees of Inisherin" who struggles with leaving a lasting mark in the world through abandoning his "simple" friend.
1. There's absolutely no stopping Ke Huy Quan from winning this award - in this universe or any multiverse.
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tar)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. Michelle Williams' performance as the troubled matriarch in "The Fabelmans" would've fared better in the Best Supporting Actress category, but here her role is totally overshadowed by everyone else.
4. There was a lot of hoopla about Ana de Armas's nomination as Marilyn Monroe in the much-maligned "Blonde" (after all, it earned several Razzie nominations), but she does play Monroe with a melancholy way that serves as her best performance to date.
3. Speaking of hoopla, everyone was shocked that Andrea Riseborough got the nomination for the unseen "To Leslie" over the likes of Viola Davis ("The Woman King") or Danielle Deadwyler ("Till"), and her role as a struggling alcoholic trying to turn her life around is stereotypical, but Riseborough does give an awards-worthy performance nonetheless.
2. The whole awards circuit has been a yo-yo game between these two actresses, and one of them will undoubtedly win Oscar gold - but which one? For me the second best performance in this category (and I know it'll be a shocker) is Michelle Yeoh's work in "EEAAO." As laundromat owner Evelyn Wang, Yeoh must not only perform that role, but multiple roles as well. She absolutely nails each one, and while I put her as second here I have no doubt she'll win (well, a little doubt), and she is much more than deserving.
1. For me, Cate Blanchett's performance as Lydia Tar in "Tar" is as impeccable as they come. Her role - as opposed to Yeoh's - is vastly different. While Yeoh plays a caring, nurturing mother who wants her daughter back in her life, Blanchett's Lydia Tar doesn't want anyone, because she's an accomplished orchestra conductor who uses her influence to get whatever - and whoever - she wants, and eventually suffers from her own hubris.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
BEST LEAD ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Afersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
5. It's a travesty that Bill Nighy has never been nominated before, and while his work in "Living" is Oscar-worthy, his role is totally eclipsed by the other performances.
4. Paul Mescal is an up-and-coming actor who gives a rousing performance in Charlotte Wells' "Aftersun" and I was more than happy to see him get a nomination for it, but sadly he won't come anywhere near Oscar gold.
3. The dark horse in this race is Colin Farrell (who, like Nighy, I'm shocked has never been nominated) for his role in "The Banshees of Inisherin." His role as a dim-witted yet lovable man who finds himself saddened when his best friend suddenly drops him is both painful and humorous, and Farrell is a pure delight, so he could be the upset in this category.
2. Much like Lead Actress, Lead Actor comes to two deserving performances. While I know mathematically it's better to bet on Butler, I have to go with my number one choice. Austin Butler did exude Elvis so much that he was stuck talking like Elvis long after production ended, and he has racked up some impressive wins, and the Academy does love rewarding actors who play real-life people, and the Academy has hardly awarded the Lead Actor statuette for an actor in a film not nominated for Best Picture...I know I should change my pick but my heart says no.
1. Brendan Fraser's comeback story is the stuff movies are made of, but only better because it's reality. His transformative performance in "The Whale" needs Oscar recognition, and since he won the SAG (which is a strong precursor to the Oscar), he could very well walk away with it. Only history is going against him, as another actor in an Aronofsky film (Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler") was denied Oscar gold mostly due to the film not getting a Best Picture nod, as well as Kristen Stewart getting robbed of an Oscar last year for "Spencer" for pretty much the same reason.
Should Win: Brendan Fraser
Will Win: Austin Butler
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (Tar)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
5. Todd Field's "Tar" is heightened by Cate Blanchett's performance, but other than that there's not much going for it other than the spectacular cinematography.
4. Ruben Ostlund's skewering the cultural elite in "Triangle of Sadness" is both darkly humorous and deep, but dampened by an elongated final act.
3. Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin" is a not-so-subtle look at the Irish Civil War told through two lifelong friends who suddenly stop being friends, and while it's one of his best works to date, there's a few directors who did better.
2. While it seems like cinematic blasphemy to say Steven Spielberg won't get an Oscar for a film that's essentially his life story, "The Fabelmans" was hampered by lackluster attendance and reviews, slightly diminishing his chances.
1. There seems to be no stopping the duo The Daniels for their directorial work in "EEAAO," as the film is not just the most ambitious film in the lot, but also they were able to pull it off with effortless ease.
Should Win: The Daniels
Will Win: The Daniels
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
#10 - Top Gun: Maverick. The Academy hardly ever awards a popcorn summer blockbuster with the gold.
#9 - Avatar: The Way of Water. Though visually beautiful, there's nothing much more about the film than that.
#8 - Triangle of Sadness. Though it has a few highs, there's more than a few lows as well that makes it an uneven chance to win.
#7 - Women Talking. The lack of other nominations doesn't bode well for this amazing tale of women in a Mennonite community coming together after a shared nightmare.
#6 - Tar. The Academy doesn't usually award a film based on just a strong lead performance.
#5 - Elvis. Same as above.
#4 - All Quiet on the Western Front. Though the original did win the Oscar back in 1930, it's a long shot that this German film will do the same, mostly because it's a film that we've seen before.
#3 - The Banshees of Inisherin. The entire cast receiving nominations, as well as directing and writing, bodes well for this Irish tale about friendships lost.
#2 - The Fabelmans. Never totally count out a Speilberg film, especially one about his own life.
#1 - Everything Everywhere All at Once. There seems to be no stopping this juggernaut, who recently clinched the SAG award for the same category, and it's more than deserving of the final prize of the award season.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Live Action Short: Le Pupille
Documentary Short Film: The Elephant Whisperers
Original Score: Babylon
Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design: Elvis
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale
Production Design: Babylon
Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Song: Naatu Nattu (RRR)
Documentary Film: Navalny
International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Film: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Actor: Austin Butler
Director: The Daniels
Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once
We'll see how many I get right when the 95th Academy Awards airs tonight on ABC at 8 pm ET!
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