89th Academy Awards Predictions

89th Academy Awards Predictions

My most anticipated day of the year is fast approaching.  Sports fans have their Super Bowl, movie fanatics (aka cinephiles) like myself have the Academy Awards.

Last year I didn't fare so well in my predictions, especially with the technical categories.  Hopefully this year I can redeem myself.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

This is a very tough category to choose from.  All the films nominated have spectacular visual effects, and if I go with my heart - which I'm going to, even though I'm probably going to be wrong - I would give the win to Kubo and the Two Strings, because the film is an absolutely marvelous gem of outstanding stop-motion animation and a deeply emotional, moving story to boot. 

SOUND MIXING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

 For me, this category comes down to Arrival and La La Land.  If La La Land wasn't nominated, Arrival would easily take the Oscar here, because the sound is so deafening and powerful and helps deliver the story, but how could you not award a musical with Sound Mixing?  For that reason I'm giving it to La La Land.

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

 Pretty much copy and paste my above statement here.  Would love for Arrival to win, but it'll go to La La Land.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

 While most of those films have had some truly powerful production designs, there was hardly a more beautiful film than La La Land, which I feel will easily take the Oscar here as well.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Well this is a crap-shoot.  Never heard of A Man Called Ove.  Suicide Squad's makeup and hairstyling mostly involved Harley Quinn and Killer Croc.  Star Trek Beyond had some beautiful makeup and hairstyling effects, so I feel they'll win here.

COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

 I'm going with La La Land here just because they've got some nice costumes, but mostly it's designs for the modern day, which isn't that interesting.  I personally would feel a film like Allied or Jackie would win, but I'm sticking with my gut and going for La La Land.

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

It's extremely difficult to edit a film, especially a musical.  That's why I feel La La Land will once again win, because it was beautifully edited.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

 Easily La La Land here, if anything else wins this category I'll be very surprised.

ORIGINAL SONG

Audition (The Fools Who Dream) from La La Land

Can't Stop the Feeling from Trolls

City of Stars from La La Land

The Empty Chair from Jim: The James Foley Story

How Far I'll Go from Moana

We got two pop-friendly songs (if you don't think the Oscars will reward such songs, Eminem and Three 6 Mafia have Oscars), and two songs from the same movie.  Even though I feel Sia's "Never Give Up" from Lion should've been nominated (if you haven't heard it, listen to it, it's truly spectacular), I think the Oscar will go to one of the songs from La La Land.  While I personally love Audition, it's City of Stars that's gotten more attention and will probably win.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

If La La Land - one of the best musicals of this generation - doesn't win for Original Score, there's a problem.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

 There's only been three films to win the Oscar Big 5: Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and Writing (It Happened One Night, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and The Silence of the Lambs).  One film this year - La La Land - could possibly join that very prestigious list, but there's a few categories that could trip them up, Writing being one of them.  While it does tell a very beautiful story, the Academy loves a sob story and I feel that the very brilliant (and extremely depressing) Manchester by the Sea will rightfully win.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

An Adapted Screenplay means the film was based off another work, and not an entirely new creation.  Moonlight's tale of a young African American man trying to find his place in the world will most assuredly win this category.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine (Denmark)

A Man Called Ove (Sweden)

The Salesman (Iran)

Tanna (Australia)

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

I was very surprised to not see Elle nominated here, since it won the Golden Globe and its lead actress - Isabelle Huppert - won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama as well as being nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars.  I feel it'll come between The Salesman and Toni Erdmann, with The Salesman winning it.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Extremis

4.1 Miles

Joe's Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

Never heard of any of these.  Extremis sounds like a cool name.  I went with that.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13th

Haven't heard of any of these either, but since O.J. has been all the rage lately I figured why not.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

Ennemis Interieus sounds neat.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

The only one I saw was Piper, and since it was a) adorable and b) made by Disney, I'm going with that for the win.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

I so wish Kubo would be recognized for the brilliant film that it was, but since it's up against a Disney juggernaut it'll be overshadowed and Zootopia - which in its own right is also amazing - will win.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

When he wins his Oscar, Damien Chazelle will be the youngest Best Director Oscar winner ever at age 32, and will be richly deserving of the gold.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Viola Davis (Fences)

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

Nicole Kidman (Lion)

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

This award is Viola Davis's to lose, and I easily don't see that happening.  If it does, it'll be a huge upset, but if she does win (which she will), she will be the first African American actor to win the Oscar, Tony and Emmy.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Ruth Negga (Loving)

Emma Stone (La La Land)

Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Much like Viola is a lock for Best Supporting Actress, Emma Stone is equally a lock for Best Actress, and if anyone else wins this category I will truly be shocked.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Mahershala Ali has received a lot of critical acclaim for his role in Moonlight, so that's why I'm giving the win to him, although newcomer Lucas Hedges was phenomenal in Manchester by the Sea, and I wouldn't be upset if he won either.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

Denzel Washington (Fences)

 We now approach THE biggest category of the night, mostly because it could go one of three ways.  Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen should be happy just to be nominated, because neither man will win.  At the Golden Globes, Casey and Ryan both won Best Actor, but for different categories (Casey for Drama, Ryan for Comedy/Musical), and Denzel won the award at the SAGs (which is a closer precursor to Oscar predictions).  Ultimately it'll come down to those three men for portraying very different roles, but I feel that Denzel's performance will stand out the most for Oscar voters, and he'll win.  If he does, he'll become the first African American to win three Oscars (he won previously for Glory and Training Day).

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

I have seen all but two of these films (Hell or High Water and Moonlight I have not seen), and this year has had the most amazing crop of Oscar-nominated pictures ever.  All of them are deserving of the title, and I feel it'll come down to three films: La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea.   Ultimately I think it'll be the clever, unique, original La La Land that will take the big prize of the night.

So here are my picks for Oscar gold this Sunday:

Visual Effects: Kubo and the Two Strings
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Sound Editing: La La Land
Production Design: La La Land
Makeup & Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Costume Design: La La Land
Film Editing: La La Land
Cinematography: La La Land
Original Song: City of Stars from La La Land
Music (Original Score): La La Land
Writing (Original Screenplay): Manchester by the Sea
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Moonlight
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Documentary Short: Extremis
Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Short Film (Live Action): Ennemis Interieurs
Short Film (Animated): Piper
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Viola Davis (Fences)
Actress in a Leading Role: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Actor in a Leading Role: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Best Picture: La La Land 

We'll see if I'm right this Sunday!