93rd Academy Awards Predictions

93rd Academy Awards Predictions

Every year I make my Oscar predictions, and mostly every year I get most wrong (mostly the ones I don't know much about).  This year I was able to see all the pictures nominated for the biggest categories, so we'll see if I fare any better this year.
 

Best Animated Short Film:
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People

The only one of these I saw was "If Anything Happens I Love You," and even if I saw the others I would go with this one because it's got the timely message about school shootings and the Academy loves to honor such films.



Best Live-Action Short Film:
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye

I never saw any of these but I heard "Two Distant Strangers" is about police brutality against an African American man, and since, again, the Academy loves to praise such films, I'm going with this one.



Best Documentary Feature:
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

Haven't heard of any of these, but "My Octopus Teacher" sounds like a fun title.



Best Documentary Short Subject:
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha

Again, never heard of any of these, picked "Colette" for...eh...reasons.



Best Cinematography:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

For me, this is between "Mank" and "Nomadland," but I personally loved how Chloe Zhao used the wide open landscape of America to tell her story, so I'm going with that.



Best Film Editing:
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

This one I'm probably going to get wrong (most people say "Promising Young Woman" will win), but "The Father" is my sentimental favorite here, as editor Yorgos Lanthimos performed a feat of wonder in the editing he did for "The Father," and he should be awarded for it.



Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Remember when "Suicide Squad" won this Oscar? I think this year it won't be as shocking, with the makeup and hairstyling work in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" is unparalleled.



Best Production Design:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet

Even though it received the most nominations, I think this is the only one "Mank" is going to win, and it would be well-deserved.



Best Visual Effects:
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

This seems like an easy category to predict the winner in, as "Tenet" was absolutely astounding in its visual effects.



Best Original Song:
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest)
Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead)
Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

I don't really know which one will win, as there's no Pixar/Disney song on the list, so I'm going with the very timely and effective "Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami."



Best Original Score:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

The score in "Soul" moves your...soul...so I think it'll be awarded here.



Best Sound:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

This one is pretty easy to predict as well, as "Sound of Metal" almost wholly relies on its unique take on sound to effectively tell its story.



Best Costume Design:
Emma
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mulan
Pinocchio

Much like Makeup and Hairstyle, the costume designs in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" is top notch, and will more than likely win this statue.



Best International Feature Film:
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

With the director of "Another Round" also receiving a Best Director nomination, I predict his film will win the International Feature Film Oscar.



Best Animated Feature Film:
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

One of the easiest, safest bets of the night.



Best Adapted Screenplay:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

"The Father" should win the Oscar here, as director Florian Zeller translated his stage play into a wonderful, thoughtful, powerful piece of cinema.



Best Original Screenplay:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

The story of a woman seeking revenge against the men who raped her friend is heavily layered, deep, timely, and impactful, and Emerald Fennell should be rewarded here.



Supporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

I saw all these performances, and I will rank them in my own personal order: 5) Glenn Close (the first time an Oscar nominee also received a Razzie nomination for the same performance); 4) Amanda Seyfried (powerful performance, but not as strong as the others in this category); 3) Maria Bakalova (the best part of an otherwise over-exposed sequel); 2) Olivia Colman (I feel her performance here is the best of her cinematic career); 1) Yuh-jung Youn (she absolutely stole the show, and will easily earn her first Academy win here).



Best Supporting Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

After seeing all these performances, here is how I rank them: 5) Lakeith Stanfield (surprised he didn't get an Actor nomination, but ultimately his role was overshadowed); 4) Paul Raci (a powerful performance that showcased his real-life deafness); 3) Leslie Odom Jr. (the standout performance of "One Night in Miami"); 2) Sacha Baron Cohen (he uses his humor to deliver a serious, dramatic performance); 1) Daniel Kaluuya (he's been winning all the awards so far, and deservedly so, and will easily win this one as well).



Best Actress:
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Ranking these performances: 5) Vanessa Kirby (powerful performance, but overshadowed by everyone else); 4) Andra Day (the only good thing in an otherwise generic biographical film); 3) Carey Mulligan (a strong, hard, memorable performance); 2) Frances McDormand (seriously this is a 51-49 split); 1) Viola Davis (dominated the screen as the larger-than-life Ma Rainey). Still, this is going to be the most difficult to predict, as it'll either go to Davis or McDormand.



Best Actor:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)

Ranking these performances: 5) Gary Oldman (Gary Oldman does his traditional Gary Oldman thing); 4) Steven Yeun (a strong freshman performance); 3) Riz Ahmed (a memorable performance); 2) Anthony Hopkins (if any other year it would've been his); 1) Chadwick Boseman (no one can compete with his final performance) - easiest prediction of the night.



Best Director:
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Ranking: 5) Vinterberg (gives an uplifting film, but seems out of place in this category); 4) Fincher (a polished, love story to traditional Hollywood); 3) Fennell (provides a thought-provoking, timely film); 2) Chung (an unforgettable look at a Korean family trying to find their American dream) 1) Zhao (will be the second female to win Best Director for her engaging work)



Best Picture:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Ranking:
8) Mank - a decent film that highlights the golden age of cinema
7) Sound of Metal - a forceful look into the world of a man loosing his sense of hearing
6) - Judas and the Black Messiah - the biographical film about Fred Hampton is powerful and impactful
5) Promising Young Woman - hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, and it was masterfully told
4) The Father - an unflinching look into how dementia affects not just the afflicted, but those around them as well
3) The Trial of the Chicago 7 - the timely story of rebellion and resistance against insurmountable odds
2) Minari - highlighting the American dream for a Korean-American family
1) Nomadland - nothing really compares to the exquisite, finely-tuned story told here


Can't wait to see if I get more right than last year!




Best Animated Short Film: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Live-Action Short Film: Two Distant Strangers
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
Best Documentary Short Subject: Colette
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Film Editing: The Father
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Original Song: Speak Now
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best International Feature Film: Another Round (Denmark)
Best Animated Feature Film: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Actress: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Actor: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Director: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Picture: Nomadland